Last month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was convinced of two things: his successful vaccination strategy had made Canadian voters grateful, and his main opponent, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, was somewhere between unpopular and unknown.
So Trudeau called a snap election for Sept. 20, hoping to earn his Liberal Party a ruling majority. Instead, his numbers dropped instantly, confounding many. With 12 days to travel , he’s likely to finish with a weakened minority government or maybe a humiliating defeat.
“The Liberals likely called the election thinking that they might be ready to run on their pandemic record, enjoys a vaccination halo and obtain before the post-stimulus economic adjustment,” said Nik Nanos, an Ottawa-based pollster at Nanos Research Group. “That’s out the door now Analysts suspect variety of things are at play in Trudeau’s potential downfall.
Many start with the mood of the electorate. they assert voters feel taken advantage of by an official seen to possess turned a health crisis into an influence grab. In one poll, nearly 60%said the country should not be having an election. Canadians are comfortable with a minority government and haven’t any special desire to assist the Liberals gain full parliamentary control.
Others point to tactical factors: On day one, Trudeau struggled to convey a transparent message about his vision and therefore the reason for the vote. On day two, O’Toole’s Conservatives released a platform focused on the economy and freed from much of the party’s traditional ideological baggage.
After Trudeau’s lead evaporated, the Liberals started that specialize in wedge issues — abortion, private health care, anti-vaxxers and regulation — aimed toward painting the Conservatives as regressive. The Tory leader hasn’t taken the bait.
Frustrated Liberals mention an exhausted group of insiders burned out by the pandemic. they assert the govt has did not replenish itself with new talent and yet came to the election with excessive self-confidence that led them to believe the inevitability of victory.
“I don’t understand how they might are so tone-deaf about the mood of the Canadian public, about peoples’ total preoccupation with Covid and a few quite return to normal,” said Peter Donolo, a president at Hill+Knowlton Canada who was communications chief to former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien.
